Overconfidence: This is the best article ever

It has got to be one of the most interesting topics in psychology, and one of the most truthful. Everyone thinks that their situation is better than everyone else's. When someone asks you to put on sunscreen most of us think, "I never get sunburned." What is it about humans that makes everyone so confident about how their situation is?
A couple of classic examples. For some reason and I do not know why, everyone thinks that their baby is the cutest thing in the world. The baby could look like Francesca Schiavone and the parents would still think it is cute. He could be fat, have one eye, and one leg really fat and the other regular sized yet the parents still call it cute. I do not get it. The reason is because overconfidence. When the parents look at their baby, it looks better to them then to other people. You know what else I find. Everyone thinks they are good looking. Its like when they look in the mirror they see a different person than themselves. Overconfidence. When people look at their fantasy football team, it looks better to them than to anyone else. Overconfidence. When people eat their food they think it is better than it really is. Overconfidence.
I still do not know why in every case, without fail, people think they are better than they really are, but it is a phenomenon that I will never be able to comprehend fully. Oh yeah, and one of the best examples is driving. Everyone thinks they are a better driver than they really are, and that is one I really do not understand because there are so many accidents that happen on the streets these days so someones got to be a bad driver.
I wonder if Moshe Rabbeinu had to deal with the problem of overconfidence. They do say he was the most humble person ever.
An experiment was conducted by Ohio State University psychologist Phillip Tetlock in which he brought in a bunch of experts to predict the future for the next five years in South Africa and the Soviet Union in terms of military, politics, and economy and he also asked them to put how confident they were that this would happen next to it. After five years, Tetlock invited the experts back to explain their prediction and he found that the ones who felt 80% confident or more about the situation were right less than 40% of the time. Despite the fact that everyone did not do so well on this test, the ones who got it wrong felt as if they were almost right.
We do not really know what the reason is for overconfidence (it probably is just something most of us are born with) and it is also possible that is something we just can't rid ourselves of, just ask Ethan Cooper.