Hindsight Bias

Ethan Cooper

A Young Money Militia

Hindsight-Bias: The Phrase I was Looking for

     I would be the first one to admit that I was terrified coming into this AP. I did not fear the difficulty or rigor involved in taking the course, nor did I believe I would fail to keep up my solid GPA. What I failed above all was that this course would be too much work for what it really is, a fairly simple AP (yes I am saying this as a student who hasn't taken the AP before). A few weeks ago, I opened up that awe-inspiring email dubbed "AP Psychology Summer Work" and immediately thought to myself, "This woman is out of her mind." However, after three hours of mere boredom of working on the assignment, I came across a vocabulary phrase that had me jumping with joy. The phrase I came across was "Hindsight-Bias." 

     This concept has been on my mind for years; however, I had always struggled to fit it into a phrase. Hindsight-bias, the "I would have done that" phenomenon, can be described in the following story: Rick Rescorla, the head of security at Morgan Stanley in the South Tower of the World Trade Center, immediately became aware of the destruction of North Tower. However, basic protocol stated that when one tower was in danger, do not evacuate the other tower. Rescorla did not heed to this advice, and evacuated the South Tower, saving over 3,000 employees at Morgan Stanley. Unfortunately, Rescorla did not make it out. 

     I share this story with you for two reasons. First, people need to know Rescorla's story, for it is incredible and motivational. Second, everyone I shared the story with gave me the exact same response: "What's so crazy about with Rescorla did? Obviously I would have evacuated the building." All of these "haters" I have shared the story with fall victim to the concept of "Hindsight-bias." They are under the impression that in the moment, they would have acted the same way. However, the only reason they would act this way is because they have seen the way it played out, and they would believe that they would do the same. This concept also deals with the idea that humans are overconfident, and tend to think they are always right and bound to make impeccable decisions. 

     I have enjoyed AP Psych thus far tremendously. Concepts like hindsight-bias and overconfidence are two terms that I have run into thus far that have had me excited for the year.

One last note: I was reading the rubric to the blogging grades and I think there is something seriously flawed. I respect proper grammar and diction; however, giving students a grade on matters as trivial as that discourages creative thinking (because students will not write as much and be forced to re-read what they have written to make sure its grammatically sound). I feel more inclined to share my ideas when I am not graded on them. Just a thought.