Mrs. Perl's Famous Tree-Killing Packets and Hindsight Bias

          This week in AP Psychology, we began learning about different research methods that are used to actually do psychological research. While simultaneously stressing over our first big assignment, we began one of Mrs. Perl's famous tree-killing packets. Before actually studying different research methods, we had to find out why they were needed at all. The answer was one that shall stay with us and annoy everyone else forevermore- hindsight bias. 

   

           Hindsight bias, also known as the "I-knew-it-along phenomenon", is the mistake that is made when trying to form our own conclusions. For instance, if I am walking down the street and someone says, "I hope it doesn't rain," to which I reply, "It won't," but it begins to rain, I'll say, "Oh actually, I knew it was going to rain the whole time". This situation is put under the heading BAD. To help explain this idea, hindsight bias is paired with another problem- overconfidence. We believe that our ideas and memories of events are accurate when in fact they are completely false. We think that we are correct more often than we actually are. So, to recap, I knew the whole time that it was going to rain because I am secretly training to be a meteorologist and I know everything there is to know about weather because I once knew the name of a cloud. This is an example of both hindsight bias and overconfidence. 

           Moving on from my atrocious run-on sentence, we proceeded to learn about the scientific method. This method is used to actually form questions and answer them. In around 6-7 steps, most scientific questions can be asked, experimented, and answered. The scientific method is really used to observe the world and ask questions. A theory is produced based on questioning and background research and a hypothesis with measured definitions is formed. Research is conducted and a conclusion is formed. One of the most important aspects of such a process is to remember that it must be able to be replicated.

          After learning the scientific method, we strolled on over to descriptive research methods. The first method we learned was the case study. This type of research method is used to study an unusual situation and ask further questions. However, when using a case study, you cannot draw conclusions. The next type of research method we learned was the survey. This is a more popular research method because conclusions can be drawn from the results. Surveys use statistical techniques to gather information from a representative group of people that can show the attitudes and behaviors of the entire population. 

    

        Surveys use sampling, which can be dangerous when trying to generalize something for an entire population. The first important rule of sampling is that every person must have an equal chance of being chosen. This type of sampling is random sampling. The second type of sampling is stratified sampling. People are divided into subgroups and then put through random sampling to increase the likelihood that the results will be more representative. Another rule to remember is that word choice matters. The way a question is phrased can have a huge impact on the result. We had a live example of sampling by examining M & M's. By studying the different colors in different packages, we learned that you need a large enough sample to get a more accurate representation. 

        When trying to figure out how I could connect what we learned in class to something in the world, I received a text from an out-of-town friend that said, "Did you see Miley Cyrus at the VMA's?". This gave me inspiration for this portion of the blog. During the VMA's, Miley Cyrus performed her song "We Can't Stop" is an extremely inappropriate way. This has been in the news ever since she performed and people are giving different opinions of it. Personally, I think she has been having a bit of a downward spiral. She started out as Hannah Montana and was a huge sensation for many years. After the show ended, she began drastically changing- not only her style but her music as well. This has been ongoing for many years, now resulting in her revolting performance at the VMA's. 

         When it comes to celebrities, people can be very annoying. One of the ways people show their apparent expertise on everything famous is by predicting who will fall and who will rise. I am certain that many people have been saying that they knew all along that Miley was going to fall. That is exactly what my friend texted me, to which I responded, "hindsight bias!". She was very confused and, unbeknownst to her, very helpful. People believe that they knew all along that Miley Cyrus would come out of Disney with a downward spiral, which I now know is called hindsight bias.