"WEEEOOOOWEEEOOOO! STOP! HINDSIGHT BIAS!!!"

To my fellow classmates and future psychologists- thank you! Thank you for making me feel like I need to write twelve paragraphs for this blog post. And I will!! 
(Overconfidence, anyone?). 
   
     Our introduction to psychology seemed like way more than an introduction, wouldn't y'all agree? I already feel like I know everything there is to know, but this is far from the truth. There is still an insane amount of information that awaits. And I'm being totally, completely honest when I say that I am super excited to dive in. 
    
     Psychology has always sounded fascinating to me. I want to know why people behave the way they do. I want to understand. I feel like life will suddenly make a whole lot more sense if I do. Obviously psychology can't explain everything, but it can sure help to make a few things clearer. I have said that by taking this AP I'm going to "learn so much about (insert name of complicated person here)!" We shall see whether I understand people more after taking this course. Perhaps I'll be able to address this question in my last blog. 
     
     Shall I get to the facts? Two things in particular that interested me were the ideas of hindsight bias and overconfidence. Hindsight bias is what happens when we look back at something after the fact and believe that it was inevitable. In regard to research findings, hindsight bias can easily occur. When someone is told that something is true based on research, they are likely to believe it. It is easily imaginable, and can even seem like common sense. If you ever hear someone using the phrases "I could have predicted it," or "I knew it all along", cry out, "STOP! HINDSIGHT BIAS!". Trust me, they'll love it.
    
     The second concept we addressed is overconfidence. Overconfidence is natural in humans. We believe that we can easily solve a problem, give the right answer to a question, or behave in a certain way. In reality, often times our expectations for ourselves are too high. Our tendency to overestimate ourselves often affects our sense of judgement.

    These concepts involve forming conclusions based on intuition and personal experience. This can be an issue when tackling a psychological question. Since the tendency to use hindsight bias and overconfidence is incredibly high, formal research is an absolute necessity. 

   Another aspect of psychology that we learned about was the way surveys are conducted. What struck me the most is the fact that the way a question on a survey is worded affects people's answers. The example that was given is the difference between "Are you in support of a woman's right to choose to have an abortion?" and "Do you believe it is right to kill an unborn fetus?" Nobody wants to answer "yes" to the second question, even if they are, indeed, pro-abortion. This just shows how incredibly wary we must be when confronted with statistical evidence. We may not be aware of how a question is worded and how that may have affected, or even mislead the research.

     Okay, so this was a total of eight paragraphs. (And I'll admit, some were pretty short). I mean, duh, I knew it all along that I wouldn't actually write twelve paragraphs. C'mon people.
(Can you say "hindsight bias"?)